Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:38:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7644…13d7 crypto 283 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$587 (-6%) realized −$581 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%99W / 181L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$220
7 days−$220
14 days−$220
30 days−$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$1,320
other 4% +$16
sports 1% −$40
politics 0% −$5
finance 0% +$23
tech 0% −$7
economics 0% −$10
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -9.8% -18.4% 33% 33% -48.9%
≤30d 9 -9.8% -18.4% 33% 33% -48.9%
≤90d 261 -16.9% -24.8% 32% 28% -25.1%
all 280 -5.5% -14.5% 35% 31% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 31% -22.6%
10% -22.6% 25% -30.0%
15% -30.1% 22% -36.8%
20% -37.0% 18% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$19 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$581
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses99 / 181
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)280 / 283
History coverage94d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 6¢ 11¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+72%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-47%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Yes 72¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 113 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 27 $270 −$151 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 27 $265 −$40 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $58 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 27 $84 −$80 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $95 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$7 -27%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $21 +$55 +256%
Will Alex Borg be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 May 04 $26 −$3 -13%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 04 $25 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 23 $20 −$19 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 23 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 23 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 23 $11 −$9 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 23 $9 +$18 +202%
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 21 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -93%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Trump say "Blockade" during Fox interview on Wednesday? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Fake news" during Fox interview on Wednesday? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-04-24? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Ettifaq Saudi Club end in a draw? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Eva Lys vs Elina Svitolina Apr 15 $20 −$19 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 15 $6 −$6 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 15 $17 −$16 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 15 $20 −$6 -31%
BNB Up or Down - April 15, 3PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$9 -93%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3PM ET Apr 15 $15 −$14 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $50 +$42 +85%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 15 $23 −$21 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 15 $6 −$6 -93%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$9 -93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 15 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 15 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 15 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 15 $10 +$35 +349%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $38 −$37 -97%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 14 $40 −$37 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 14 $69 −$65 -94%
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary electio Apr 14 $3 +$5 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $125 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $152 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $36 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.91 · official $13.91 (match) · 1137 history records