Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:21:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7641…0d4b world 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 286d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%20W / 38L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$7
politics 22% $0
other 20% +$1
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +3.2% -6.6% 25% 25% -7.0%
≤30d 22 +1.0% -8.6% 36% 9% -8.7%
≤90d 24 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 8% -8.7%
all 58 -0.4% -9.8% 34% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 3% -9.1%
10% -18.5% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.4% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.88 per $1 lost it wins $2.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

286d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses20 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage286d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $45 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $11 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $13 +$2 +12%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $2 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $44 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $36 +$5 +15%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $35 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $31 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $125 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $37 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $34 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $12 −$1 -12%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $35 +$2 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $18 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Sep 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 +1%
TikTok sale announced by September 30? Sep 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Sep 28 $17 $0 -0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 28 $1 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $2 $0 +10%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $17 $0 -0%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $2 $0 -1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 24 $47 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 23 $19 $0 -0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by September 30? Sep 22 $19 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $4 $0 -3%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 19 $3 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $45 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $45 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $6 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $44 27h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $44 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $44 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $44 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 55¢ $41 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $34 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $2 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $21 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $13 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $35 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $31 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $23 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $39 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $39 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 177 history records