Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:42:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x763e…586e crypto 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$492 (-32%) realized −$492 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate20%5W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$68
14 days−$40
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$224
other 27% −$158
crypto 26% −$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-62.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -18.8% -26.6% 40% 40% +4.2%
≤30d 7 -31.3% -37.9% 29% 29% -14.5%
≤90d 9 -46.6% -51.7% 22% 22% -34.3%
all 25 -58.3% -62.3% 20% 12% -44.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.3% 12% -44.4%
10% -65.9% 12% -49.7%
15% -69.2% 12% -54.5%
20% -72.2% 12% -59.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$43 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$492
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses5 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage120d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$148 +146%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 20 $166 +$100 +60%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $222 −$56 -25%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $52 −$52 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $128 −$126 -99%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $95 −$91 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 07 $18 −$8 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 01 $54 −$53 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 01 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 01 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Feb 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Feb 28 $52 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Feb 28 $67 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Feb 28 $70 −$54 -77%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $106 −$21 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Feb 28 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Feb 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Feb 28 $18 +$18 +99%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 25 $53 −$53 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 5h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 9h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $266 15h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $166 10d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL Yes 15¢ $166 10d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 20¢ $222 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 0¢ $26 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 0¢ $26 13d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 51¢ $128 35d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $95 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $8 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $4 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $50 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $30 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $20 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $26 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $32 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $31 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $37 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $39 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $30 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records