Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
76 0x763e…cee0 sports 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 343d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$360 (-9%) realized −$360 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%29W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$64
14 days−$64
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$383
crypto 16% −$139
other 14% +$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -14.4% -22.5% 20% 20% -33.1%
≤30d 5 -14.4% -22.5% 20% 20% -33.1%
≤90d 5 -14.4% -22.5% 20% 20% -33.1%
all 57 +5.9% -4.1% 51% 51% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 51% -19.3%
10% -13.3% 49% -27.0%
15% -21.7% 39% -34.1%
20% -29.4% 26% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$59 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

343d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$360
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses29 / 28
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage343d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$61 -97%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $87 −$24 -28%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $33 +$54 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $33 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Dec 04 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Dec 04 $51 +$54 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Dec 04 $20 +$31 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Dec 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Nov 13 $4 +$9 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Nov 13 $20 −$16 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Nov 13 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Nov 10 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Nov 10 $40 +$38 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Nov 10 $21 +$19 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Nov 10 $11 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Nov 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Rockets vs. Bucks Nov 09 $254 −$195 -77%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $171 +$138 +81%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $108 +$63 +58%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $192 +$51 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Nov 08 $63 +$62 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Nov 08 $32 +$31 +98%
Will Everton win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $26 +$6 +24%
Will West Ham win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Union Berlin vs. Bayern München end in a draw? Nov 08 $4 +$21 +519%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $56 −$52 -93%
Will Blackburn Rovers FC vs. Derby County FC end in a draw? Nov 08 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) Oct 23 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) Oct 22 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO1) Oct 18 $206 −$51 -25%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs FlyQuest (BO1) Oct 18 $40 +$15 +39%
North Carolina vs. California Oct 18 $84 −$11 -13%
Kings vs. Lakers Oct 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Clippers vs. Warriors Oct 18 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) Oct 17 $107 +$44 +41%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Top Esports (BO3) Oct 17 $34 +$73 +212%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Movistar KOI (BO1) Oct 15 $131 −$131 -100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Fnatic (BO1) Oct 15 $91 +$41 +45%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs Team Secret Whales (BO1) Oct 15 $62 +$29 +47%
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Oct 15 $44 +$18 +41%
Will Guatemala win on 2025-10-14? Oct 15 $34 +$10 +29%
Will Suriname win on 2025-10-14? Oct 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Flames Oct 15 $34 −$7 -21%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Oct 14 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Oct 14 $21 +$10 +48%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) Oct 10 $35 −$35 -100%
League of Legends: OKSavingsBank BRION vs. DN Freecs Aug 23 $390 −$390 -100%
League of Legends: Hanwha Life Esports vs. Gen.G Aug 23 $314 +$75 +24%
Reds vs. Diamondbacks Aug 23 $251 +$63 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $63 18m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 41¢ $63 19m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $87 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $87 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $33 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $30 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 35¢ $30 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $33 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $106 194d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $106 194d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $51 194d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $51 194d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $20 194d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $12 215d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 215d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $4 215d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 215d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $3 215d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $20 215d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $20 215d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 215d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $78 219d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $78 219d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $40 219d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $40 219d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 219d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 219d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 219d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $101 219d
Rockets vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 70¢ $195 219d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records