Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:48:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x763c…5287 other 11 markets active 4d ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$5 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$5
world 24% $0
politics 17% −$1
finance 8% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -33.3% -39.7% 0% 0% -40.5%
≤30d 6 -33.3% -39.7% 0% 0% -40.5%
≤90d 6 -33.3% -39.7% 0% 0% -40.5%
all 6 -33.3% -39.7% 0% 0% -40.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.7% 0% -40.5%
10% -45.5% 0% -46.2%
15% -50.7% 0% -51.4%
20% -55.6% 0% -56.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)6 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 13¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 20¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 18¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 6¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.90 · official $4.90 (match) · 13 history records