Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:22:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x763c…25b2 crypto 413 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (126 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$221 (-0%) realized −$1,420 · open +$1,199
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate81%371W / 89L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$1,783per market
Trades / day125.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$126,180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$12,713
sports 17% +$292
other 11% +$143
tech 0% +$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (126 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 -40.5% -46.1% 47% 2% -14.9%
≤30d 460 -8.9% -17.5% 81% 3% -8.8%
≤90d 460 -8.9% -17.5% 81% 3% -8.8%
all 460 -8.9% -17.5% 81% 3% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover125.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 3% -8.8%
10% -25.4% 3% -17.5%
15% ← realistic here -32.6% 3% -25.5%
20% -39.2% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$1,455) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$103 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$126,180
Realized−$1,420
Unrealized+$1,199
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses371 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions42
Markets (closed)460 / 413
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$1,783
Trades / day125.7
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $25,582 $25,646 +$64 (+0%)
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $13,808 $15,110 +$1,302 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $11,347 $11,371 +$24 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $7,819 $7,827 +$8 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $6,994 $7,010 +$16 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $5,446 $5,471 +$24 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,677 $4,683 +$6 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,613 $4,611 −$2 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $4,496 $4,523 +$27 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 94¢ $2,748 $3,014 +$266 (+10%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? Yes 88¢ 68¢ $3,636 $2,800 −$835 (-23%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $2,544 $2,599 +$55 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,557 $2,559 +$1 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,461 $2,464 +$4 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,449 $2,464 +$15 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,406 $2,441 +$35 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,343 $2,344 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,340 $2,344 +$4 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,343 $2,344 +$1 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,906 $1,907 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,541 $1,544 +$2 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,225 $1,242 +$17 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,232 $1,234 +$2 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,201 $1,210 +$8 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,201 $1,203 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin above 78,200 on April 22, 8PM ET? Jun 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on May 5? Jun 30 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? Jun 30 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6? Jun 30 $9 −$9 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Jun 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9AM ET Jun 30 $298 −$298 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 25? Jun 30 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11? Jun 30 $30 −$30 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo leading at halftime? Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana reach $90 on May 6? Jun 30 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin above 77,000 on April 24, 10PM ET? Jun 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 7? Jun 30 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12? Jun 30 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 30 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 27? Jun 30 $158 −$158 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 27? Jun 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 29? Jun 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3PM ET Jun 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 2? Jun 30 $59 −$53 -89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? Jun 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on May 5? Jun 30 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 2? Jun 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 29? Jun 30 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6PM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 30 $390 −$390 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12? Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8AM ET Jun 30 $168 −$324 -193%
Will Solana reach $100 on May 11? Jun 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 29? Jun 30 $73 −$43 -59%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 6? Jun 30 $109 −$47 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Jun 30 $791 −$791 -100%
Solana Up or Down on May 2? Jun 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-22? Jun 30 $659 −$659 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 30 $129 −$129 -100%
XRP Up or Down on May 2? Jun 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 28? Jun 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Noskova (+1.5) Jun 30 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 7? Jun 30 $136 −$136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 2? Jun 30 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,906 12m
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $2,025 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $4,538 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $541 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $332 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $332 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $332 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,907 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $584 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $444 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $3 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $3 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $999 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 29-July 5? BUY No 99¢ $129 8h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $197 9h
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $4,562 9h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY No 99¢ $1,204 9h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY No 100¢ $3,453 9h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY No 99¢ $1,201 9h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $744 10h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY No 99¢ $1,448 10h
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,171 10h
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,232 10h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY No 99¢ $876 10h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $2,329 10h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $2,340 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $1,230 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,226 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $13 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,558 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126,180.48 · official $126,179.30 (match) · 3500 history records