Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
76 0x7639…6563 sports 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$608 (-3%) realized −$608 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate71%59W / 24L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$138est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$229
7 days−$1,723
14 days−$1,723
30 days−$1,812
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$630
crypto 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -29.0% -35.7% 62% 38% -43.7%
≤30d 27 -29.7% -36.4% 59% 41% -41.7%
≤90d 83 -8.3% -17.0% 71% 54% -12.6%
all 83 -8.3% -17.0% 71% 54% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 54% -12.6%
10% -24.9% 30% -21.0%
15% -32.2% 14% -28.6%
20% -38.8% 7% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$152 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$608
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses59 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$138
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage62d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 24 $176 +$66 +37%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $124 −$122 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova Jun 23 $285 −$284 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $270 +$14 +5%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Cadence Brace vs Kayla Day Jun 23 $279 +$42 +15%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Jun 23 $223 +$56 +25%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $938 −$928 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $157 −$155 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $133 −$132 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $99 +$34 +34%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski Jun 21 $221 −$220 -99%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 21 $109 −$108 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Giles Hussey Jun 20 $132 −$132 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart Jun 20 $127 +$5 +4%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Emily Appleton Jun 20 $114 +$12 +11%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $102 +$12 +12%
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 20 $317 +$17 +6%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm Jun 20 $293 +$24 +8%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Federico Bondiol Jun 20 $254 +$33 +13%
Set 1 Winner: Osorio vs Tomljanovic Jun 20 $6 $0 +2%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Ziga Sesko Jun 20 $216 +$43 +20%
Tyler: Landon Ardila vs Tyler Zink Jun 02 $92 −$92 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $74 +$18 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $154 +$84 +54%
Perugia: Moez Echargui vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 02 $231 −$102 -44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $25 −$25 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 May 26 $94 +$27 +29%
Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik May 24 $106 +$38 +36%
San Diego FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $360 +$46 +13%
Sporting Kansas City vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 1.5 May 24 $345 +$14 +4%
Celtic FC vs. Dunfermline Athletic FC: O/U 1.5 May 23 $302 +$44 +14%
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 1.5 May 23 $255 +$47 +18%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 23 $147 −$147 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 23 $101 +$46 +46%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Xiyu Wang May 22 $87 +$15 +17%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Ignacio Buse May 22 $280 +$20 +7%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Tom Gentzsch vs Roman Safiullin May 22 $263 +$17 +6%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Claire Liu May 22 $245 +$18 +7%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz May 22 $219 +$26 +12%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Borna Gojo vs Jurij Rodionov May 22 $179 +$40 +23%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anna Kalinskaya vs Jelena Ostapenko May 11 $109 +$23 +21%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $167 +$12 +7%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5 May 10 $131 +$36 +27%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Liudmila Samsonova vs Anastasia Potapova May 10 $124 +$6 +5%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5 May 09 $261 +$25 +10%
Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5 May 09 $220 +$40 +18%
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. RB Ōmiya Ardija: O/U 2.5 May 09 $123 +$97 +79%
76ers vs. Knicks May 06 $15 −$15 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 04 $15 −$15 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $127 +$53 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry SELL Gabriel Diallo 59¢ $241 19m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Gabriel Diallo 42¢ $176 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Iga Swiatek 61¢ $124 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova BUY Varvara Lepchenko 90¢ $285 26h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens SELL Naomi Osaka 100¢ $284 26h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Naomi Osaka 95¢ $270 27h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Cadence Brace vs Kayla Day SELL Kayla Day 100¢ $321 27h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Cadence Brace vs Kayla Day BUY Kayla Day 87¢ $279 28h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally SELL Caty McNally 100¢ $279 28h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 79¢ $223 28h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 64¢ $358 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 65¢ $579 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $157 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 83¢ $133 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $133 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $99 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski BUY Marcos Giron 77¢ $221 3d
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Zachary Svajda 80¢ $109 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Giles Hussey BUY James Duckworth 85¢ $132 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart SELL Hamish Stewart 100¢ $132 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart BUY Hamish Stewart 96¢ $127 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Emily Appleton SELL Peyton Stearns 100¢ $127 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Emily Appleton BUY Peyton Stearns 90¢ $114 4d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 100¢ $114 4d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 89¢ $102 4d
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic SELL Emma Navarro 100¢ $335 4d
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Emma Navarro 95¢ $317 4d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm SELL Renata Zarazua 100¢ $317 4d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm BUY Renata Zarazua 92¢ $293 4d
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Federico Bondiol SELL Adam Walton 100¢ $287 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records