Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:02:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7638…d2f7 tech 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care tech specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$44 (+38%) realized +$45 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +129% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +99% what you keep after slip
Net edge+99%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 100% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+107.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +129.4% +107.6% 33% 33% +38.5%
≤30d 3 +129.4% +107.6% 33% 33% +38.5%
≤90d 3 +129.4% +107.6% 33% 33% +38.5%
all 3 +129.4% +107.6% 33% 33% +38.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +107.6% 33% +38.5%
10% +87.7% 33% +25.2%
15% +69.6% 33% +13.1%
20% +53.0% 33% +2.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +129% · $-wt +53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$17 · ×4.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage5d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+4%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 18 $35 −$6 -19%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $14 +$73 +507%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $28 −$27 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 35¢ $28 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes 29¢ $28 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 34¢ $35 42h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 82¢ $88 42h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 5d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 0¢ $19 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.84 · official $37.84 (match) · 22 history records