Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:36:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7638…765c crypto 220 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (1463 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$235 (+1%) realized +$310 · open −$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate78%169W / 49L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day1463.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1463 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 218 +1.3% -8.3% 78% 49% -8.7%
≤30d 218 +1.3% -8.3% 78% 49% -8.7%
≤90d 218 +1.3% -8.3% 78% 49% -8.7%
all 218 +1.3% -8.3% 78% 49% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1463.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 49% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 21% -17.4%
15% -25.1% 11% -25.4%
20% -32.5% 5% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$41 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized+$310
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses169 / 49
Open positions2
Markets (closed)218 / 220
History coverage2d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day1463.1
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 74¢ 50¢ $100 $66 −$34 (-34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 85¢ 50¢ $100 $58 −$42 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $153 −$108 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $76 +$16 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $244 +$29 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $153 +$27 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $125 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $211 −$14 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 22 $230 +$22 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 22 $126 −$76 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $131 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $86 +$17 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $56 +$15 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $90 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $131 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $203 −$7 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $103 −$67 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $197 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $203 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $111 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $223 +$17 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $126 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $166 +$13 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $106 −$31 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $102 −$20 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $71 +$14 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$10 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 22 $70 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $76 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $80 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $272 −$272 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $288 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $126 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $121 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$10 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $116 +$17 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $65 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $55 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $241 −$118 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.58 · official $124.58 (match) · 3029 history records