Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:45:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

76 0x7633…99f4 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$48 (+13%) realized +$49 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip

Net edge+13%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown22%max

Avg bet$92per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+18.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+30.4%	+18.0%	67%	67%	+16.1%
≤30d	3	+30.4%	+18.0%	67%	67%	+16.1%
≤90d	3	+30.4%	+18.0%	67%	67%	+16.1%
all	3	+30.4%	+18.0%	67%	67%	+16.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+18.0%	67%	+16.1%
10%	+6.7%	67%	+5.0%
15%	-3.6%	67%	-5.2%
20%	-13.0%	33%	-14.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +28% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +30% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$28 vs −$10 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.64 per $1 lost it wins $5.64

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$202

Realized+$49

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$92

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown22%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	90¢	90¢	$203	$202	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$50	+$22	+43%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$60	−$10	-17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$54	+$35	+64%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	90¢	$204	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$72	7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$50	11h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	71¢	$50	12h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	84¢	$60	15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$88	15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	60¢	$54	17h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.30 · official $202.30 (match) · 7 history records