Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7630…e23e crypto 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11 (-17%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate53%32W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day73.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -27.3% -34.2% 53% 43% -31.6%
≤30d 60 -27.3% -34.2% 53% 43% -31.6%
≤90d 60 -27.3% -34.2% 53% 43% -31.6%
all 60 -27.3% -34.2% 53% 43% -31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.2% 43% -31.6%
10% ← realistic here -40.5% 27% -38.1%
15% -46.2% 18% -44.1%
20% -51.5% 12% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses32 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day73.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records