Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:15:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x762e…4bf0 sports 639 markets active 1h ago coverage 407d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$182,265 (-9%) realized −$182,265 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%292W / 347L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,099per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$6,634est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$841
7 days−$7,362
14 days−$7,772
30 days−$16,576
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$165,409
other 13% −$18,294
crypto 0% −$5,727
world 0% +$1,908
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -22.2% -29.6% 41% 41% -32.9%
≤30d 108 -6.7% -15.6% 47% 46% -20.4%
≤90d 321 -8.3% -17.0% 45% 43% -22.3%
all 639 -6.4% -15.3% 46% 45% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 45% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 44% -25.7%
15% -30.8% 43% -32.9%
20% -37.6% 42% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$3,237) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,116 vs −$2,321 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

407d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$182,265
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses292 / 347
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$6,634
Open positions0
Markets (closed)639 / 639
History coverage407d
Avg bet$3,099
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 639 Trades
no open positions (151 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $190 −$186 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $64 +$126 +197%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $295 −$291 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $496 −$490 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $621 −$621 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $322 +$300 +93%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $2,423 −$2,108 -87%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $1,522 +$906 +60%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $895 +$628 +70%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $491 +$405 +82%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $758 −$748 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $393 +$366 +93%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $363 −$358 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,034 −$1,672 -82%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $615 −$606 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,502 +$1,145 +76%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $912 +$593 +65%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $490 +$421 +86%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $498 −$490 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $929 −$818 -88%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $491 +$439 +89%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 17 $495 −$488 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,967 −$1,942 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $2,205 −$2,177 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $981 −$960 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $2,728 +$1,426 +52%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $2,790 +$692 +25%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $969 −$753 -78%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $3,944 −$3,178 -81%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,691 +$2,718 +101%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,560 +$1,656 +65%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,199 +$1,363 +114%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,118 −$920 -43%
Basket Zielona Gora vs. Legia Warszawa Jun 15 $1,057 +$1,064 +101%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $505 +$551 +109%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $557 −$546 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $559 −$1 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $228 +$331 +145%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 15 $209 +$19 +9%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $218 −$9 -4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,518 −$1,304 -86%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $833 +$687 +82%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $2,765 −$2,733 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2,098 −$1,293 -62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,522 −$1,440 -57%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $2,529 +$2,008 +79%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $2,001 −$1,269 -63%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2,337 −$1,543 -66%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,205 +$1,204 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 43¢ $190 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $190 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $64 1h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $295 26h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $496 28h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 57¢ $621 2d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 51¢ $322 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Saudi Arabia $315 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 46¢ $2,423 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1,522 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,523 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 58¢ $895 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $896 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $491 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $758 3d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $759 3d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 51¢ $393 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 59¢ $363 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No $362 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 53¢ $615 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $2,034 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1,502 3d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 61¢ $525 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 60¢ $164 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 58¢ $35 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 58¢ $138 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 58¢ $1 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 58¢ $41 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 58¢ $7 4d
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $912 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.22 · official $0.22 (match) · 1768 history records