Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:58:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
76 0x762e…bbcb sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$101 (+51%) realized +$106 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +115% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +80% what you keep after slip
Net edge+80%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$125
other 8% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+94.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +115.4% +94.9% 80% 80% +90.4%
≤30d 5 +115.4% +94.9% 80% 80% +90.4%
≤90d 5 +115.4% +94.9% 80% 80% +90.4%
all 5 +115.4% +94.9% 80% 80% +90.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +94.9% 80% +90.4%
10% +76.3% 80% +72.2%
15% +59.2% 80% +55.5%
20% +43.6% 80% +40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +110% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +115% · $-wt +110% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$5 · ×6.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×26.08 per $1 lost it wins $26.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$106
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 40¢ 38¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Argentina 21¢ 18¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? No 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $31 +$24 +76%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$34 +324%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 22 $17 +$33 +197%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 22 $50 +$40 +79%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 21¢ $20 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $41 1h
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $10 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $31 7h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 7h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 7h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $5 15h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 15h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $17 20h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $50 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.80 · official $75.80 (match) · 13 history records