Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:09:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

76
0x7629…226c
sports · 2013 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$990 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,015 · open −$24
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$480
Realized+$1,015
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses1167 / 436
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions87
Markets (closed)1603 / 2013
History coverage9d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day257.5
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 87 History 1603 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$534
7 days+$712
14 days+$1,015
30 days+$1,015
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will CD Real Tomayapo win on 2026-05-12? No 84¢ 51¢ $40 $24 −$16 (-40%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 80¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 48¢ 62¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+27%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 80¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Under 80¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Under 80¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Shelbourne FC vs. Shamrock Rovers: O/U 4.5 Under 82¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Canada 83¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Under 84¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? No 80¢ 94¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC vs. Drogheda United FC: O/U 4.5 Under 87¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Spread: Shamrock Rovers (-1.5) Shelbourne FC 87¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Shamrock Rovers win on 2026-06-12? No 89¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 89¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Drogheda United FC win on 2026-06-12? No 89¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 89¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 82¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 47¢ 65¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+38%)
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match? No 80¢ 87¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the announcers say "Mexico" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 87¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Over 58¢ 76¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+31%)
Will Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC vs. Drogheda United FC end in a draw? No 81¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+23%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Under 89¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 80¢ 81¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Duckworth vs. Harris: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Set 1 Winner: Zidansek vs Hercog Jun 12 $4 $0 +9%
Watanuki vs. Dias: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
Heilbronn (Doubles): Jung/Uesugi vs Nagal/Trungelliti Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Kilian Feldbausch Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Perugia: Remy Bertola vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 12 $4 $0 -11%
Perugia: Francesco Forti vs Reilly Opelka Jun 12 $4 $0 -12%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Faria vs. Nava: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Stephens vs. Pigato: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Jenson Brooksby vs. Alex Molcan: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Gill vs. Jacquet: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Carabelli vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 163.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Cervia: Sandro Kopp vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 40.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ellis vs. Zink: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Zagreb: Nerman Fatic vs Elmer Moeller Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Dominik Palan vs. Maan Kesharwani: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Set Handicap: Kalinina (-1.5) vs Bondar (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Darderi Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Cervia: Juan Martin vs Michele Ribecai Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Set Handicap: Parry (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ruud vs. Navone: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playoff Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Jacob Fearnley vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Basilashvili (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Club Alianza Atlético win on 2026-05-24? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 109.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Senshi Esports Club vs mCon esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Keys vs. Ferro: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 87% +$1,819
other 13% +$142
world 0% +$2
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World BUY Yes 87¢ $5 0m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 17m
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 89¢ $5 22m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 80¢ $5 33m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 49¢ $4 42m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 47¢ $4 42m
Shelbourne FC vs. Shamrock Rovers: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $5 45m
Will Dundalk FC win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 80¢ $0 46m
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Under 80¢ $5 46m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 80¢ $5 51m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 80¢ $5 51m
Will Shamrock Rovers win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 89¢ $5 58m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 47¢ $4 58m
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 45¢ $4 58m
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin BUY Alba Berlin 51¢ $4 1h
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 80¢ $5 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $5 1h
Derry City FC vs. Bohemians Dublin FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $5 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 89¢ $5 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Canada 83¢ $5 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $5 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $4 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $5 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $5 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 2h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $5 2h
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 82¢ $5 2h
Spread: Derry City FC (-1.5) BUY Bohemians Dublin FC 88¢ $5 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ $4 2h
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) BUY Shelton 49¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1436 +11.4% +0.8% 71% 71% +0.4%
≤30d 1603 +16.0% +5.0% 73% 72% +3.2%
≤90d 1603 +16.0% +5.0% 73% 72% +3.2%
all 1603 +16.0% +5.0% 73% 72% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover257.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.0% 72% +3.2%
10% ← realistic here -5.1% 40% -6.7%
15% -14.2% 19% -15.7%
20% -22.6% 18% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $480.07 · official $477.46 (match) · 3500 history records