Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:32:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7629…e81b other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-8%) realized −$27 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$25
other 33% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$9 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)3 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $25 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.83 · official $8.83 (match) · 13 history records