Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:30:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
76 0x7629…ef05 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$34 (+17%) realized +$36 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+44.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +60.0% +44.8% 100% 100% +44.8%
≤30d 2 +60.0% +44.8% 100% 100% +44.8%
≤90d 2 +60.0% +44.8% 100% 100% +44.8%
all 2 +60.0% +44.8% 100% 100% +44.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +44.8% 100% +44.8%
10% +30.9% 100% +31.0%
15% +18.3% 100% +18.3%
20% +6.7% 50% +6.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +60% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Palma Del Rio: Fangran Tian vs Viola Turini Fangran Tian 70¢ 69¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Thiago Seyboth Wild 85¢ 84¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Kayo Nishimura Kayo Nishimura 33¢ 33¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
ITF Taipei: Gyeong Seo Lee vs Naho Sato Gyeong Seo Lee 41¢ 39¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Sapporo: Miho Kuramochi vs Seo Yun Choi Jun 25 $30 +$11 +38%
ITF Sapporo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Kanon Sawashiro Jun 25 $30 +$25 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 85¢ $36 1h
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Kayo Nishimura BUY Kayo Nishimura 33¢ $31 1h
ITF Taipei: Gyeong Seo Lee vs Naho Sato BUY Gyeong Seo Lee 41¢ $31 1h
ITF Sapporo: Miho Kuramochi vs Seo Yun Choi SELL Miho Kuramochi 100¢ $42 2h
ITF Sapporo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Kanon Sawashiro SELL Ayumi Miyamoto 100¢ $55 2h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Fangran Tian vs Viola Turini BUY Fangran Tian 70¢ $39 6h
ITF Sapporo: Miho Kuramochi vs Seo Yun Choi BUY Miho Kuramochi 72¢ $30 6h
ITF Sapporo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Kanon Sawashiro BUY Ayumi Miyamoto 54¢ $30 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.14 · official $132.14 (match) · 8 history records