Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:37:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7628…d431 weather 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+5%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$30
weather 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -20.1% -27.7% 62% 50% -21.0%
≤30d 8 -20.1% -27.7% 62% 50% -21.0%
≤90d 8 -20.1% -27.7% 62% 50% -21.0%
all 8 -20.1% -27.7% 62% 50% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.7% 50% -21.0%
10% ← realistic here -34.6% 38% -28.5%
15% -41.0% 25% -35.4%
20% -46.8% 0% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$23 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions21
Markets (closed)8 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 1? No 78¢ 77¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 1? No 78¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 30? No 82¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 30? No 87¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on June 30? No 92¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 1? No 88¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 1? No 70¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on July 1? No 74¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 30? No 76¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on July 1? No 77¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 30? No 87¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 30? No 68¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 1? No 85¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 1? No 69¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 1? No 92¢ 91¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 30? No 88¢ 87¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 30? No 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 36°C on June 30? No 93¢ 91¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 30? No 91¢ 89¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 1? No 84¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 29 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 29 $61 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $48 +$13 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 33m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 30? BUY No 79¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $15 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 1? BUY No 84¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 30? BUY No 76¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 30? BUY No 88¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 30? BUY No 91¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 1? BUY No 78¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 30? BUY No 87¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on July 1? BUY No 74¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 1? BUY No 77¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 1? BUY No 88¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 30? BUY No 85¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 1? BUY No 69¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 30? BUY No 68¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 1? BUY No 85¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 1? BUY No 92¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on July 1? BUY No 77¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on June 30? BUY No 92¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 1? BUY No 70¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 30? BUY No 91¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 36°C on June 30? BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 87¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 1? BUY No 79¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 1? BUY No 79¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.88 · official $23.87 (match) · 43 history records