Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:58:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7623…a16f world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 435d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$4
other 18% −$6
politics 17% +$1
crypto 4% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 16 +6.6% -3.6% 31% 12% -8.6%
≤90d 16 +6.6% -3.6% 31% 12% -8.6%
all 39 +0.9% -8.7% 49% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 5% -9.6%
10% -17.5% 3% -18.3%
15% -25.5% 3% -26.2%
20% -32.8% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

435d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage435d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $190 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $15 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $4 +$4 +98%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $13 $0 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +13%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $48 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $8 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $50 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $6 $0 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $46 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 27 $7 $0 +4%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? May 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Susie Wiles be out as White House Chief of Staff in Trump's first May 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 29 $9 $0 +2%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Apr 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 28 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadi Apr 27 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 23 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will the PPC win 5 or more seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Apr 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 15 $18 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 38¢ $49 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $52 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $21 9h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $20 10h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $9 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $27 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $36 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $6 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $52 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $50 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $14 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $15 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $53 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $53 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $3 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $5 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $4 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $4 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $14 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $0 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records