Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:14:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7621…ba73 other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%20W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$2
other 28% $0
crypto 6% $0
politics 5% $0
finance 4% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.3% -7.5% 40% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 12 -0.7% -10.2% 42% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 18 +31.8% +19.2% 39% 6% -10.0%
all 50 +11.0% +0.4% 40% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 2% -9.8%
10% -9.2% 2% -18.5%
15% -18.0% 2% -26.3%
20% -26.0% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses20 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage457d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $26 $0 +1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $27 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $28 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $25 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $25 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $52 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $30 −$6 -19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $7 $0 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $28 +$4 +14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $28 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 17-20%? Jun 05 $10 $0 +4%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio Jun 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $9 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 19 $1 $0 -22%
Will Ireland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 17 $10 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? May 15 $9 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 15 $2 $0 -4%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 12 $10 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 11 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 08 $9 $0 -1%
Will the next Pope be from Africa? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $12 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on March 26? Mar 29 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Norfolk State vs. Florida Mar 23 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $28 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $28 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $22 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $4 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $26 15h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 11¢ $9 24h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 11¢ $0 24h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 10¢ $1 27h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 10¢ $3 27h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 10¢ $5 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $27 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $27 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $27 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $27 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 81¢ $28 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $25 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 47¢ $25 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 47¢ $19 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $25 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $19 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $5 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $30 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 90¢ $22 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 90¢ $8 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.94 · official $0.00 (match) · 130 history records