Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:35:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
76 0x7621…944b sports 58 markets active 3h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$355 (+6%) realized +$396 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate91%50W / 5L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$409now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$159
7 days+$159
14 days+$159
30 days+$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$313
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +29.0% +16.7% 100% 100% +19.0%
≤30d 4 +29.0% +16.7% 100% 100% +19.0%
≤90d 55 +0.8% -8.8% 91% 18% -4.1%
all 55 +0.8% -8.8% 91% 18% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 18% -4.1%
10% -17.5% 9% -13.3%
15% -25.5% 4% -21.7%
20% -32.8% 0% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$40 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$409
Realized+$396
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses50 / 5
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)55 / 58
History coverage70d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 76¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 56¢ $200 $158 −$42 (-21%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Over 80¢ 80¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $202 +$84 +42%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$29 +29%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$24 +24%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Zachary Svajda May 08 $18 +$2 +9%
Wuxi: Mark Lajal vs Dane Sweeny May 08 $126 +$4 +3%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi May 08 $36 −$36 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marcos Giron vs Marin Cilic May 07 $30 +$6 +21%
Istanbul: Xinran Sun vs Mia Ristic May 07 $90 +$10 +11%
Wuxi: Alafia Ayeni vs Soon-Woo Kwon May 07 $65 +$5 +7%
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees May 07 $28 +$2 +6%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 07 $28 +$2 +6%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs May 07 $37 −$37 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins May 07 $26 +$4 +13%
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals May 07 $36 +$4 +10%
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 07 $38 +$2 +6%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Putintseva vs Tereza Valentova May 06 $37 +$3 +8%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Zhizhen Zhang vs Daniel Altmaier May 06 $75 −$35 -46%
Francavilla: Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Gustavo Heide May 06 $38 +$2 +6%
Francavilla: Juan Carlos Prado vs Buvaysar Gadamauri May 06 $25 +$2 +6%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jenson Brooksby vs Sebastian Baez May 06 $38 +$2 +6%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Jelena Ostapenko May 06 $38 +$2 +4%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Damir Dzumhur vs Adrian Mannarino May 06 $38 +$2 +6%
Istanbul: Storm Hunter vs Guiomar Maristany May 06 $28 +$2 +6%
Istanbul: Anastasia Gasanova vs Polina Kudermetova May 06 $18 −$18 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marco Trungelliti vs Zachary Svajda May 06 $75 −$75 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants May 06 $37 +$3 +8%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 06 $38 +$2 +4%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 06 $47 +$3 +7%
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees May 06 $30 +$1 +4%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals May 06 $57 +$3 +5%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $187 +$13 +7%
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals May 06 $208 +$13 +6%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 06 $29 +$1 +4%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $291 +$24 +8%
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5) May 03 $22 +$8 +36%
Lille OSC vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5 May 03 $31 +$9 +31%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $275 +$25 +9%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $358 +$42 +12%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $188 +$12 +6%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 29 $94 +$6 +6%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Suns vs. Thunder Apr 28 $98 +$2 +2%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $460 +$40 +9%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.10 Week of April 20 2026? Apr 26 $9 $0 +1%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 26 $91 +$9 +10%
Spread: Rockets (-8.5) Apr 25 $94 +$6 +6%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 25 $182 +$17 +10%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 24 $276 +$24 +9%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 22 $95 +$5 +5%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $273 +$26 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $50 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $101 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 16h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $101 39h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $101 39h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $101 39h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $101 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $101 2d
Wuxi: Mark Lajal vs Dane Sweeny BUY Mark Lajal 97¢ $126 41d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Zachary Svajda BUY Casper Ruud 92¢ $18 41d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Alex de Minaur 71¢ $36 41d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marcos Giron vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 82¢ $30 42d
Istanbul: Xinran Sun vs Mia Ristic BUY Mia Ristic 90¢ $90 42d
Wuxi: Alafia Ayeni vs Soon-Woo Kwon BUY Soon-Woo Kwon 93¢ $16 42d
Wuxi: Alafia Ayeni vs Soon-Woo Kwon BUY Soon-Woo Kwon 93¢ $21 42d
Wuxi: Alafia Ayeni vs Soon-Woo Kwon BUY Soon-Woo Kwon 94¢ $28 42d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Cincinnati Reds 93¢ $37 42d
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 94¢ $38 42d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins BUY Baltimore Orioles 88¢ $26 42d
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees BUY Texas Rangers 94¢ $21 42d
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees BUY Texas Rangers 94¢ $7 42d
Canadiens vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 94¢ $28 42d
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 91¢ $36 42d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Putintseva vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tereza Valentova 93¢ $37 43d
Istanbul: Anastasia Gasanova vs Polina Kudermetova BUY Anastasia Gasanova 88¢ $18 43d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Zhizhen Zhang vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 92¢ $37 43d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marco Trungelliti vs Zachary Svajda BUY Marco Trungelliti 93¢ $28 43d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marco Trungelliti vs Zachary Svajda BUY Marco Trungelliti 94¢ $47 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $409.04 · official $411.87 (match) · 150 history records