Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x761e…db66 crypto 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$236 (+13%) realized +$236 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%20W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day31.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$148
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -4.0% -13.1% 40% 36% -18.7%
≤30d 50 -4.0% -13.1% 40% 36% -18.7%
≤90d 50 -4.0% -13.1% 40% 36% -18.7%
all 50 -4.0% -13.1% 40% 36% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 36% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 36% -26.5%
15% -29.0% 32% -33.6%
20% -36.0% 30% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$27 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$236
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses20 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage5d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day31.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 24 $83 +$24 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $33 −$7 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$54 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$15 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $42 −$30 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $111 −$105 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $84 +$71 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $208 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $37 −$10 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $69 −$22 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $42 +$184 +439%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $11 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $58 +$59 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $37 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$52 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$82 +516%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$22 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $9 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $28 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $39 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $28 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $34 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $34 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $33 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $6 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 168 history records