Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:36:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
76 0x761a…e1f3 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$19 (+4%) realized +$24 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +83% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +66% what you keep after slip
Net edge+66%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$25
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$6
sports 23% +$7
weather 17% +$3
crypto 1% −$6
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+65.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -40.9% -46.5% 27% 27% -23.5%
≤30d 22 +83.2% +65.7% 41% 27% -5.7%
≤90d 22 +83.2% +65.7% 41% 27% -5.7%
all 22 +83.2% +65.7% 41% 27% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +65.7% 27% -5.7%
10% +49.9% 23% -14.7%
15% +35.4% 14% -22.9%
20% +22.1% 14% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +83% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +207% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)22 / 26
History coverage13d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 1 Haiti? No 94¢ 81¢ $44 $38 −$6 (-14%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $26 +$7 +27%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4 $0 -8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 $0 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $32 −$32 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $17 −$2 -10%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $22 +$4 +17%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $40 +$11 +27%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $16 +$19 +119%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $7 −$1 -15%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $32 +$1 +4%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $32 +$1 +4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $17 −$17 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 +$19 +1116%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$18 +1329%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -76%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $74 +$3 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 1 Haiti? BUY No 94¢ $44 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 19¢ $6 7h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 78¢ $26 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 62¢ $4 42h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 66¢ $4 42h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $29 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 34¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 34¢ $11 2d
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 75¢ $32 4d
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 30¢ $15 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $17 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $22 6d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes $1 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $3 6d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $40 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $16 7d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 49¢ $6 7d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $7 7d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 96¢ $27 7d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 96¢ $5 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $17 7d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 96¢ $32 7d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes $2 7d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $1 8d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? SELL Yes $0 8d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes $1 8d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.20 · official $75.66 (match) · 42 history records