Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:59:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7618…b8ca world 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate24%17W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$3
politics 19% $0
other 12% +$1
sports 12% −$11
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 22% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 24 -3.4% -12.6% 33% 4% -9.1%
≤90d 70 -1.5% -10.9% 24% 1% -9.4%
all 71 -2.9% -12.2% 24% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 1% -9.8%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses17 / 54
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage486d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $40 −$2 -4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $15 +$1 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $59 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $37 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $40 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $133 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $100 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $51 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $47 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $94 −$3 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $46 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $29 +$4 +14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $36 +$2 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $41 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $132 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 18 $45 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $3 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 07 $63 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 07 $3 $0 -4%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $52 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $75 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $2 $0 -2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $47 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $47 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $84 +$1 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $129 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $14 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $88 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $29 $0 +1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $47 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 73¢ $39 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $34 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $6 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $44 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $44 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 32h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 38h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $11 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $11 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $25 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $24 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $18 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $27 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $44 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $22 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $18 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.00 (match) · 312 history records