Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:14:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

76
0x7615…308a
weather · 983 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$219 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$128 · open −$91
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$158
Realized−$128
Unrealized−$91
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses691 / 223
Open positions69
Markets (closed)914 / 983
History coverage9d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day362.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 69 History 914 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days−$276
14 days−$128
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? No 81¢ 97¢ $8 $9 +$2 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? No 58¢ 57¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? No 88¢ 89¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? No 78¢ 74¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? No 76¢ 72¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? No 64¢ 59¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? No 78¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? No 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? No 89¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? No 55¢ 50¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? No 82¢ 77¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? No 70¢ 71¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 14? No 68¢ 69¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? No 70¢ 68¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? No 60¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? No 56¢ 60¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 13? No 77¢ 98¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? No 68¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? No 88¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 92¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? No 86¢ 93¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? No 89¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? No 93¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? No 55¢ 59¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? No 94¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $4 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$3 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$4 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$3 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$3 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$8 +132%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$7 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$17 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$3 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$3 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$219
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 60¢ $3 2m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $2 33m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 51¢ $2 33m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 60¢ $2 34m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $2 37m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 70¢ $4 46m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $2 54m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 79¢ $2 54m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 54¢ $2 56m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 76¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 76¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 51¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 60¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 55¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 60¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 6¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 60¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 60¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 60¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 50¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 783 +7.7% -2.6% 77% 65% -14.2%
≤30d 914 +8.2% -2.1% 76% 64% -11.4%
≤90d 914 +8.2% -2.1% 76% 64% -11.4%
all 914 +8.2% -2.1% 76% 64% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover362.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.1% 64% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -11.5% 45% -19.9%
15% -20.0% 32% -27.6%
20% -27.9% 21% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.94 · official $157.95 (match) · 3398 history records