Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:48:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
76 0x7612…a507 other 18 markets active 3d ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$193 (+58%) realized +$193 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$195
sports 13% −$1
politics 6% $0
weather 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 +1.1% -8.5% 80% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 14 -7.0% -15.8% 36% 0% -10.4%
all 18 +0.9% -8.7% 39% 11% +43.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 11% +43.1%
10% -17.5% 11% +29.4%
15% -25.4% 11% +16.9%
20% -32.8% 11% +5.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$0 · ×121.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×85.2 per $1 lost it wins $85.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$193
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage100d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 25? May 26 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 25? May 26 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 24? May 25 $3 $0 +1%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1 $0 -17%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $1 $0 -33%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $169 +$192 +113%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Stade de Reims win on 2026-03-09? Mar 11 $5 +$4 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 25? BUY No 99¢ $3 26d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 25? BUY No 97¢ $4 26d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 24? BUY No 99¢ $3 26d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3 26d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $16 60d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 61d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 64d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 65d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 68d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 69d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 71d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 73d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 76d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $20 77d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $20 80d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 81d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 85d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 85d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 88d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 89d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 91d
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $11 94d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $31 95d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $31 97d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes $0 98d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY No 47¢ $169 100d
Will Stade de Reims win on 2026-03-09? BUY No 60¢ $5 102d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes $1 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records