Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:51:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
76 0x7610…9073 crypto 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 413d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+3%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate57%29W / 22L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$9
other 27% +$23
world 7% +$5
sports 3% −$6
finance 1% +$1
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +5.2% -4.8% 57% 37% -7.7%
≤30d 51 +5.2% -4.8% 57% 37% -7.7%
≤90d 51 +5.2% -4.8% 57% 37% -7.7%
all 51 +5.2% -4.8% 57% 37% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 37% -7.7%
10% -13.9% 29% -16.5%
15% -22.3% 20% -24.6%
20% -29.9% 12% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

413d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses29 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)51 / 56
History coverage413d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 88¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-10%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 85¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +51%
Spain to win the second half? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$12 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$10 +1016%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $15 +$10 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $15 −$3 -22%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$23 +442%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $7 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 11h
Spain to win the second half? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 12h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 15h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 16h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 16h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.09 · official $55.09 (match) · 115 history records