Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:20:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
76 0x760e…db1a sports 206 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$371 (+6%) realized +$371 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate61%123W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$152
14 days+$247
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$260
other 25% −$52
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +38.7% +25.5% 66% 66% +11.1%
≤30d 130 +3.0% -6.8% 60% 60% -4.7%
≤90d 203 +1.7% -8.0% 61% 59% -6.2%
all 203 +1.7% -8.0% 61% 59% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 59% -6.2%
10% -16.8% 52% -15.2%
15% -24.8% 40% -23.4%
20% -32.2% 24% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$21 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$371
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses123 / 80
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions3
Markets (closed)203 / 206
History coverage58d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $31 +$18 +56%
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $22 +$3 +15%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $19 +$3 +16%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $40 +$10 +26%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $11 +$5 +49%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $21 +$9 +43%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $26 +$13 +49%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $31 +$9 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $41 +$18 +44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $11 +$6 +53%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $5 +$78 +1460%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $32 +$19 +61%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $21 +$12 +56%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +42%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $12 +$5 +40%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 +$12 +45%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $42 +$27 +64%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 +$10 +65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $20 +$16 +81%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $11 +$6 +58%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $42 +$18 +42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $11 +$15 +142%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $11 +$7 +67%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $11 +$8 +76%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $16 +$3 +17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 +$6 +58%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $11 +$6 +56%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $21 +$6 +27%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $5 +$4 +82%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +102%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 +$5 +24%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $16 +$5 +29%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $28 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $11 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 22h
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 22h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $22 40h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $19 44h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $11 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 2d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $48 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $11 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $11 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $31 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $11 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $11 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $19 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $11 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $11 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $11 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $11 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $21 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 72¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.15 · official $46.15 (match) · 492 history records