Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x760c…da37 crypto 1282 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d only
✗ bot/MM pace (149 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$335 (-4%) realized −$334 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate47%772W / 870L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day149.0pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$354
7 days−$490
14 days−$482
30 days−$482
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$5
other 10% −$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (149 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1385 -13.4% -21.6% 44% 13% -16.7%
≤30d 1642 -12.4% -20.7% 47% 19% -14.7%
≤90d 1642 -12.4% -20.7% 47% 19% -14.7%
all 1642 -12.4% -20.7% 47% 19% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover149.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 19% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 6% -22.9%
15% -35.2% 2% -30.3%
20% -41.6% 1% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$334
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses772 / 870
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1642 / 1282
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day149.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1642 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 50¢ 76¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+53%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 50¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$2 +17779%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 3500 history records