Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:26:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
76 0x760b…dbd7 sports 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$354 (-12%) realized −$354 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%64W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$157
7 days+$157
14 days+$157
30 days+$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$86
crypto 5% −$157
other 5% +$278
politics 1% −$14
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +44.8% +31.0% 50% 50% +26.0%
≤30d 10 +25.9% +13.9% 40% 40% +25.8%
≤90d 10 +25.9% +13.9% 40% 40% +25.8%
all 129 -7.8% -16.6% 50% 48% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 48% -8.9%
10% -24.6% 39% -17.6%
15% -31.9% 29% -25.6%
20% -38.5% 25% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$19 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$354
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses64 / 65
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage243d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 129 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $107 +$325 +305%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $159 −$159 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $71 +$53 +74%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? May 30 $1 −$1 -60%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $2 $0 -23%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $1 $0 -17%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 30 $1 +$2 +201%
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Feb 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA Feb 22 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 22 $1 $0 +19%
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers Feb 21 $15 +$12 +85%
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland Feb 21 $11 +$3 +28%
Will SK Brann vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? Feb 20 $1 $0 +37%
Men's Quarterfinals - Slovakia vs. Germany Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Team Falcons win Blast Slam VI? Feb 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $22M committed to the Space public sale? Jan 20 $2 $0 +9%
Over $26M committed to the Space public sale? Jan 16 $24 −$22 -91%
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 20 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $1 $0 -6%
Maduro out by December 31, 2026? Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 20 $1 $0 +4%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 20 $1 $0 +17%
Over $10M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 20 $1 $0 +39%
No airdrop in 2025? Dec 18 $12 +$1 +12%
Maple Leafs vs. Capitals Dec 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. Ferencvárosi TC end in a draw? Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will PAOK vs. SK Brann end in a draw? Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Páfos FC vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw? Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bengals vs. Ravens Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rangers FC vs. SC Braga end in a draw? Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Flyers vs. Panthers Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bruins vs. Islanders Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Packers vs. Lions Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5 Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. FC Utrecht end in a draw? Nov 28 $1 $0 +20%
Will Go Ahead Eagles vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? Nov 28 $1 $0 +22%
Will FK Crvena zvezda vs. FCSB end in a draw? Nov 28 $1 $0 +22%
Will FC Porto vs. OGC Nice end in a draw? Nov 28 $1 $0 +22%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg end in a draw? Nov 28 $1 $0 +22%
Will Lille OSC vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb end in a draw? Nov 28 $1 $0 +24%
Will AS Roma vs. FC Midtjylland end in a draw? Nov 28 $1 $0 +27%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. Celtic FC end in a draw? Nov 28 $1 $0 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Spain 26¢ $25 35m
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 30¢ $25 37m
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 30¢ $5 39m
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Spain 44¢ $20 52m
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Spain 44¢ $2 52m
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Spain 44¢ $101 52m
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Spain 44¢ $51 52m
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Spain 44¢ $51 52m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 96¢ $124 1h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Spain 45¢ $43 1h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Spain 44¢ $79 1h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Spain 44¢ $10 1h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Spain 40¢ $51 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $71 1h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain $77 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $62 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $159 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY 21¢ $9 2d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 22d
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 22d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 22d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 22d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $3 22d
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY No 33¢ $1 114d
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA BUY Canada 36¢ $48 119d
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA BUY Canada 55¢ $24 119d
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, BUY Hernandez 70¢ $2 119d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-21? BUY No 84¢ $1 120d
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers BUY Nuggets 54¢ $15 120d
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland BUY Canada 78¢ $11 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 303 history records