Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:35:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
76 0x760b…1577 other 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$158 (-3%) realized −$9 · open −$149
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$168
7 days+$168
14 days−$566
30 days−$566
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$335
other 45% −$280
crypto 2% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -6.5% -15.4% 57% 52% -3.4%
≤30d 32 -12.6% -20.9% 53% 50% -20.1%
≤90d 32 -12.6% -20.9% 53% 50% -20.1%
all 32 -12.6% -20.9% 53% 50% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 50% -20.1%
10% -28.5% 38% -27.7%
15% -35.4% 28% -34.7%
20% -41.7% 22% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$103 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$253
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$149
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage11d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 30¢ $400 $253 −$147 (-37%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $102 +$12 +12%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $882 −$290 -33%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $102 −$89 -87%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $101 +$30 +30%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $109 +$34 +31%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $10 +$4 +38%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $505 +$263 +52%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $102 +$93 +92%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $9 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $201 +$38 +19%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $12 +$12 +101%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 +$24 +118%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $104 +$123 +118%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $40 +$9 +22%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $6 −$4 -58%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $25 +$25 +99%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $797 +$204 +26%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $166 −$163 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $111 +$55 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $47 +$7 +14%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $240 −$192 -80%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$43 +84%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $499 −$303 -61%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $406 28m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 56¢ $113 48m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 35¢ $592 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $102 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $609 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Under $13 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $274 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $102 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $1 17h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $0 17h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $1 17h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $131 21h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $143 21h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $14 21h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $768 21h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $193 21h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $109 21h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $10 21h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $101 21h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 20¢ $2 22h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $102 22h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $30 22h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $20 22h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $16 22h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $4 22h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $40 22h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 92¢ $100 22h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 22h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? BUY Yes $10 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.39 · official $253.39 (match) · 75 history records