Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:15:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7608…b400 crypto 959 markets active 0h ago coverage 115d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 115d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$754 (-1%) realized −$754 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate85%812W / 147L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$202
7 days−$343
14 days−$343
30 days−$358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$645
other 5% −$151
sports 1% −$186
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -11.9% -20.3% 80% 12% -19.0%
≤30d 322 -5.8% -14.8% 80% 31% -14.4%
≤90d 613 -5.5% -14.5% 83% 19% -10.9%
all 959 -4.2% -13.3% 85% 15% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 15% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 5% -19.4%
15% -29.2% 4% -27.2%
20% -36.1% 3% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$754
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses812 / 147
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)959 / 959
History coverage115d ⚠
Avg bet$67
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 959 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET Jun 18 $129 +$1 +1%
HYPE Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET Jun 18 $41 $0 +1%
HYPE Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
HYPE Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET Jun 18 $160 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$5 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $45 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $150 $0 +0%
HYPE Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $170 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $126 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Jun 18 $115 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $133 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $49 +$1 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET Jun 18 $46 +$1 +2%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $29 +$3 +9%
Theo Bongonda: 2+ goals Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $93 +$7 +7%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $94 −$56 -60%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
HYPE Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Valorant: Fancy United vs Sharper Esport (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: P Jun 17 $65 +$1 +1%
HYPE Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $129 +$1 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $24 $0 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $90 +$10 +11%
Austria vs. Jordan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $95 +$10 +11%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $82 +$5 +6%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $66 +$4 +6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $37 +$8 +21%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $70 +$4 +6%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $69 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $115 +$8 +7%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $100 +$13 +13%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +17%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $37 +$1 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $17 −$3 -16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $189 −$153 -81%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -91%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -76%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$3 -91%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $119 21m
HYPE Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $41 23m
HYPE Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $160 2h
HYPE Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 2h
HYPE Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $6 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $11 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $45 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 2h
HYPE Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $150 3h
HYPE Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $126 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $50 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $115 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $135 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $34 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $46 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 92¢ $29 19h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL No 39¢ $38 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 1¢ $0 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records