Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:50:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
76 0x7608…9440 other 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$62 (+7%) realized +$65 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$114
sports 15% +$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +52.1% +37.6% 44% 41% -3.6%
≤30d 32 +52.1% +37.6% 44% 41% -3.6%
≤90d 32 +52.1% +37.6% 44% 41% -3.6%
all 32 +52.1% +37.6% 44% 41% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.6% 41% -3.6%
10% +24.5% 34% -12.8%
15% +12.4% 34% -21.2%
20% +1.4% 28% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +87% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$19 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage5d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 86¢ $17 $20 +$4 (+22%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$2 -10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $81 +$40 +49%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$14 -90%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -56%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$8 -52%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$31 +307%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $67 +$45 +68%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -69%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$95 -95%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$51 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$12 +113%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$7 +14%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$95 +1845%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 0m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $1 2m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 22m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $17 32m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $59 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 3h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 4h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 13h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $5 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $2 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 33h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 33h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 33h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 33h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $110 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $5 35h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.54 · official $13.42 · 66 history records