Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:16:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7602…4c5f other 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 435d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate46%21W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$1
other 32% −$2
politics 10% +$1
finance 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.6% -11.0% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 15 -0.8% -10.2% 27% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 20 +0.0% -9.5% 35% 5% -9.6%
all 46 -0.1% -9.6% 46% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

435d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses21 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage435d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $12 −$1 -12%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $29 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $46 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $46 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $21 −$1 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $98 +$4 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $16 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $53 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $28 −$4 -16%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $6 +$1 +19%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $51 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $4 $0 +9%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Jun 24 $14 $0 +2%
Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 06 $8 $0 +4%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 20 $14 $0 +3%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $14 $0 +1%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 10 $8 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $7 $0 -2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 08 $3 −$1 -26%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or more in April? May 08 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2000 on May 9? May 08 $3 $0 +5%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting? May 07 $21 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? May 06 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days? Apr 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will Anamaria Gavrilă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Ru Apr 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 18 $19 $0 +1%
Will the PPC win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election? Apr 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 14 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $50 10m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $50 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 8h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $29 37h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $29 40h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $26 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $14 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $46 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $4 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $48 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $52 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 71¢ $2 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 71¢ $39 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 71¢ $6 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 69¢ $46 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 151 history records