Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:53:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75ff…d60f crypto 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$89 (-3%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate73%70W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$177
other 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +31.7% +19.1% 100% 80% +11.8%
≤30d 5 +31.7% +19.1% 100% 80% +11.8%
≤90d 96 -2.0% -11.3% 73% 55% -14.1%
all 96 -2.0% -11.3% 73% 55% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 55% -14.1%
10% -19.8% 38% -22.3%
15% -27.5% 24% -29.8%
20% -34.6% 18% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$32 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses70 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage57d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 22 $52 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 21 $52 +$51 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 21 $102 +$16 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 21 $204 +$65 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 21 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9AM ET May 21 $9 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 21 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 16 $51 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 16 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 15 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 13 $51 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 13 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5AM ET May 13 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 13 $51 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 13 $21 +$19 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 13 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 12 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 12 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 12 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 11 $103 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 11 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 10 $10 −$8 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 09 $10 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 09 $100 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 09 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 09 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 09 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 09 $10 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 09 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 08 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 08 $10 +$2 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $60 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $103 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $52 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $117 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $204 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $203 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $12 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $9 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $21 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $81 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $51 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $24 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 196 history records