Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:04:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
75 0x75fe…3a47 sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$641 (+6%) realized +$640 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$738
14 days+$391
30 days+$571
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$550
politics 19% +$371
finance 14% +$379
world 10% −$215
other 6% −$385
culture 1% −$102
crypto 0% −$14
tech 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +7.8% -2.5% 75% 62% +0.0%
≤30d 23 -19.4% -27.1% 57% 39% -4.4%
≤90d 23 -19.4% -27.1% 57% 39% -4.4%
all 28 -26.3% -33.4% 46% 32% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.4% 32% -4.4%
10% -39.7% 11% -13.6%
15% -45.6% 4% -21.9%
20% -50.9% 0% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -38% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$62 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized+$640
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage100d
Avg bet$352
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 76¢ 76¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $1,000 −$215 -22%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,407 +$103 +7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $100 +$13 +13%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $403 +$109 +27%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $505 +$230 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $302 −$153 -51%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 16 $1,398 +$379 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,877 +$272 +14%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $100 +$9 +9%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti Jun 12 $121 −$102 -84%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $46 +$6 +13%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $364 −$94 -26%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 11 $27 −$21 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 10 $51 −$33 -65%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $1 $0 +20%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $1,908 +$371 +19%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $76 −$32 -41%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $163 −$160 -98%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $2 $0 -1%
Will George Russell win the 2026 Action of the Year? Mar 15 $3 −$2 -82%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will George Russell achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Chinese Gra Mar 15 $2 −$2 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $201 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 66¢ $785 11h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,000 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 89¢ $1,510 18h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 87¢ $1,004 18h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 83¢ $101 18h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 67¢ $101 18h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 79¢ $101 18h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 68¢ $101 18h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 88¢ $100 20h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 76¢ $201 21h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 80¢ $201 21h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 41h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 39¢ $149 41h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $302 43h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Up 78¢ $1,398 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 87¢ $281 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 87¢ $191 7d
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff SELL Overtake 100¢ $109 7d
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti SELL No 14¢ $20 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 87¢ $1,305 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 87¢ $100 7d
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff BUY Overtake 91¢ $100 7d
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY Iowa Stormboar 92¢ $100 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 86¢ $10 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 88¢ $10 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 88¢ $10 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 89¢ $16 7d
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti BUY No 82¢ $121 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 43¢ $114 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.32 · official $201.32 (match) · 79 history records