Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75fd…8ef1 crypto 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$41 (+2%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate81%26W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 42% −$15
world 26% $0
crypto 17% $0
other 15% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 17% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 19 -0.8% -10.2% 68% 0% -11.1%
all 32 -0.4% -9.9% 81% 0% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -11.0%
10% -18.5% 0% -19.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -27.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses26 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage106d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 22 $613 −$17 -3%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $168 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 18 $158 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $126 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 12 $118 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $231 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 04 $100 −$15 -15%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 9? May 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 8? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 7? Apr 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 2? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 26? Mar 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 25? Mar 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 21? Mar 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 17? Mar 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 16? Mar 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 14? Mar 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 13? Mar 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 10? Mar 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 9? Mar 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 8? Mar 09 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 76¢ $597 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 76¢ $153 5h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 77¢ $153 5h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 77¢ $153 5h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 77¢ $154 5h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $168 7h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $168 7h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 80¢ $160 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 79¢ $158 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $0 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $25 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 286 history records