Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:56:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

75
0x75fd…9924
crypto · 73 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$46 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$178 · open +$22
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,641
Realized−$178
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses41 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)68 / 73
History coverage120d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 5 History 68 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$100
30 days+$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $1,591 $1,599 +$8 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1,544 $1,542 −$2 (-0%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $997 $997 +$0 (+0%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $333 $345 +$12 (+4%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 90¢ 92¢ $154 $157 +$4 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $91 −$2 -2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $1,900 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 04 $286 −$97 -34%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -90%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $42 −$20 -47%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? May 31 $1,599 +$26 +2%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? May 23 $1,570 +$38 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 19 $1,342 +$71 +5%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $15 +$2 +15%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $20 −$6 -28%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2,635 +$162 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 06 $330 +$35 +11%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 02 $274 +$28 +10%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 01 $78 +$7 +9%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $14 +$2 +12%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $5 $0 -6%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $101 +$20 +19%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $14 −$7 -52%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 13 $3 +$1 +30%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 11 $40 +$20 +50%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 10 $15 −$8 -51%
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 09 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Apr 09 $420 +$15 +4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 08 $68 +$14 +21%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 03 $2,128 +$79 +4%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $995 +$124 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 13 $616 −$616 -100%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during Miami address? Mar 09 $37 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Feb 27 $7 −$5 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Feb 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Feb 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Feb 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of February Feb 25 $171 +$26 +15%
Will Trump say "Gold Card" or "Trump card" during the 2026 State of th Feb 25 $24 +$13 +54%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 24 $164 +$7 +4%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of February Feb 23 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February? Feb 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? Feb 21 $150 −$1 -1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of February? Feb 21 $130 +$6 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $50 +$3 +6%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 20 $50 +$2 +5%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 20 $50 +$2 +5%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026? Feb 15 $4 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 53% −$222
other 24% +$72
crypto 13% −$108
politics 10% +$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 90¢ $90 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $45 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY No 90¢ $154 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $25 2d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $72 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $59 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $15 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $10 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $5 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $15 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $10 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $10 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $14 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $36 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $23 8d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $262 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $22 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $26 8d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $112 8d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $15 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $1 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $16 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $5 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $25 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $488 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 12 -14.2% -22.4% 42% 8% -7.9%
≤90d 27 -7.2% -16.1% 59% 30% -6.4%
all 68 -15.5% -23.6% 60% 31% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 31% -10.5%
10% -30.9% 18% -19.1%
15% -37.6% 9% -26.9%
20% -43.7% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,640.56 · official $4,640.56 (match) · 525 history records