Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:16:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75fc…a5f2 politics 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 28% −$11
other 26% −$1
politics 25% $0
sports 10% $0
culture 5% $0
finance 4% −$6
crypto 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -10.1% -18.7% 30% 0% -12.1%
≤90d 10 -10.1% -18.7% 30% 0% -12.1%
all 51 -2.9% -12.2% 22% 2% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 2% -10.9%
10% -20.6% 2% -19.5%
15% -28.3% 2% -27.2%
20% -35.3% 2% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage268d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $86 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $35 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $43 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $46 −$3 -7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $2 +$1 +77%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 World Series? Oct 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Oct 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Oct 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? Oct 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $20 $0 -1%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 04 $2 $0 -1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 04 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 30 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $15 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 29 $3 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will the 2025 Ryder Cup end in a tie? Sep 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Sep 23 $19 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Sep 23 $26 −$6 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $38 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $38 1h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $11 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $0 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $0 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $8 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $16 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $27 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $8 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $13 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $12 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $8 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $34 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $35 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $13 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $48 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $48 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $48 20d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 99¢ $43 21d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 97¢ $42 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.95 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records