Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75fb…6560 crypto 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized +$0 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -22.1% -29.5% 0% 0% -12.9%
≤30d 2 -22.1% -29.5% 0% 0% -12.9%
≤90d 2 -22.1% -29.5% 0% 0% -12.9%
all 2 -22.1% -29.5% 0% 0% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 0% -12.9%
10% -36.3% 0% -21.2%
15% -42.4% 0% -28.8%
20% -48.1% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
11.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage6d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 70¢ 64¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 12 $26 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 11 $1 $0 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 65¢ $3 9m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 72¢ $3 46m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 78¢ $2 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 77¢ $2 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 72¢ $2 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 71¢ $12 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 79¢ $3 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 31h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 85¢ $5 31h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 58¢ $4 31h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 64¢ $3 36h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 37h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 92¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 87¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 86¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 79¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 73¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 65¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 71¢ $3 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 58¢ $5 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 55¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.21 · official $18.68 (match) · 78 history records