Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75f9…9e9b crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$76 (+13%) realized +$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate76%41W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$5
politics 38% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -3.4% -12.6% 81% 26% -9.8%
≤30d 54 -3.5% -12.7% 76% 26% +1.1%
≤90d 54 -3.5% -12.7% 76% 26% +1.1%
all 54 -3.5% -12.7% 76% 26% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 26% +1.1%
10% -21.0% 13% -8.6%
15% -28.6% 4% -17.4%
20% -35.6% 2% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses41 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage22d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 70¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -45%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $27 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $22 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $27 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $27 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 01 $14 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 01 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 01 $27 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 01 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 01 $4 $0 +7%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 01 $78 +$203 +260%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 50m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.62 · official $0.76 (match) · 220 history records