Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:27:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75f5…6070 weather 283 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,353 (-4%) realized −$3,856 · open +$503
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate93%239W / 17L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$122est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$14,241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 61d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$138
weather 33% +$345
sports 8% +$630
politics 4% +$300
world 2% −$1,413
crypto 1% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +19.7% +8.3% 68% 68% -12.1%
≤30d 116 +8.8% -1.5% 91% 17% -12.2%
≤90d 256 +5.5% -4.6% 93% 11% -10.7%
all 256 +5.5% -4.6% 93% 11% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 11% -10.7%
10% -13.7% 11% -19.3%
15% -22.1% 10% -27.1%
20% -29.7% 9% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$636 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$14,241
Realized−$3,856
Unrealized+$503
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses239 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions10
Markets (closed)256 / 283
History coverage61d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $9,055 $9,361 +$307 (+3%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 86¢ 86¢ $2,066 $2,068 +$1 (+0%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 40¢ 52¢ $1,040 $1,339 +$299 (+29%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $1,008 $1,032 +$24 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $506 $351 −$156 (-31%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 18¢ 50¢ $10 $28 +$18 (+181%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 26¢ 50¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 18¢ 50¢ $7 $19 +$12 (+175%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Down 78¢ 50¢ $28 $18 −$10 (-37%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$19 +93%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $304 +$196 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,035 +$565 +55%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 AND United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $254 +$241 +95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $510 +$958 +188%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,014 +$854 +84%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,024 +$276 +14%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $190 +$110 +58%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $520 +$380 +73%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $505 −$500 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,203 +$1,397 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $762 +$891 +117%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,363 +$1,137 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,430 −$1,413 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,020 −$2,000 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,294 −$1,280 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,304 −$2,288 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $517 −$510 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $637 +$363 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $528 +$872 +165%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $239 +$261 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $517 −$510 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,195 −$1,180 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 29? May 30 $44 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on May 29? May 30 $178 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on May 29? May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ma May 30 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 29? May 30 $37 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma May 30 $12 +$28 +223%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on May 29? May 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 100°F or higher on May 29? May 30 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C or higher on May May 30 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C or below on May 2 May 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on May 29? May 30 $45 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on May 29? May 30 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or higher on May 29? May 30 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or below on May 29? May 30 $41 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C or higher on May 29? May 30 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on May 29? May 30 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C or below on May 29? May 30 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 28? May 29 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on May 28? May 29 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 28? May 29 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on May 28? May 29 $291 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on May 28? May 29 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on May 28? May 29 $273 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma May 29 $197 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on May 28? May 29 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $304 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AN BUY 41¢ $509 4h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end BUY 7¢ $257 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 40¢ $255 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND W BUY 31¢ $510 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,019 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 11¢ $51 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 41¢ $509 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 34¢ $510 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 15¢ $256 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,035 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 17¢ $512 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 AND United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY 51¢ $254 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 11¢ $257 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Will Canada win on BUY 22¢ $512 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Will Canada win on BUY 15¢ $256 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 14¢ $513 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY 5¢ $514 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Colombia win on BUY 57¢ $506 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $505 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 34¢ $510 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 54¢ $1,014 4d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Colombia win on 2026 BUY 36¢ $510 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,241.20 · official $15,741.19 · 1063 history records