Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:23:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75f3…0e78 sports 1459 markets active 2h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,136 (-5%) realized −$7,135 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%631W / 807L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$297est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days−$385
14 days+$282
30 days−$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$4,981
other 9% −$1,544
crypto 1% −$143
world 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -2.4% -11.7% 43% 43% -25.8%
≤30d 141 -3.0% -12.2% 46% 46% -12.3%
≤90d 407 -12.9% -21.2% 40% 40% -18.9%
all 1438 -4.3% -13.4% 44% 44% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 44% -13.3%
10% -21.7% 43% -21.6%
15% -29.3% 42% -29.2%
20% -36.2% 39% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$97 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$7,135
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses631 / 807
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$297
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1438 / 1459
History coverage231d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1438 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 41¢ 40¢ $105 $104 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $40 +$86 +216%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $41 +$32 +79%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $33 +$40 +124%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $67 −$66 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $32 −$32 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $33 −$32 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $36 +$34 +97%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 +$84 +206%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$48 -94%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$23 +90%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$28 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 +$39 +152%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $25 +$37 +145%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $64 −$63 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $115 −$113 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $29 −$28 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $66 +$85 +128%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $179 −$176 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $59 +$36 +62%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $84 −$82 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $135 −$133 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $69 +$70 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $41 +$64 +158%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $53 +$71 +134%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $103 −$101 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $67 −$65 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $29 +$27 +93%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $26 +$35 +134%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $56 −$55 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $56 −$55 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $56 −$55 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $26 +$37 +140%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $67 −$66 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 +$28 +109%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $101 +$108 +107%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $56 −$55 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $78 −$77 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $51 +$36 +70%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $51 +$110 +216%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $59 −$58 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $40 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $67 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $10 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $10 10h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $40 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 31¢ $23 18h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $33 23h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 55¢ $41 23h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $28 34h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $22 42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $45 43h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $32 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $33 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $36 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $41 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 3¢ $3 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- BUY 13¢ $12 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $51 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $25 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $25 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 48¢ $27 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $23 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $30 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $59 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $64 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $25 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $62 4d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $62 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $24 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $25 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.60 · official $103.60 (match) · 2692 history records