Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75e9…2b3a sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day33.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$9
other 14% −$4
crypto 6% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.9% -12.1% 25% 12% -19.3%
≤30d 8 -2.9% -12.1% 25% 12% -19.3%
≤90d 8 -2.9% -12.1% 25% 12% -19.3%
all 8 -2.9% -12.1% 25% 12% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 12% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 12% -27.1%
15% -28.2% 12% -34.1%
20% -35.2% 12% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage5d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day33.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $49 −$2 -5%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $60 −$3 -5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $760 −$16 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 11 $14 −$1 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $5 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 59¢ $5 7m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 9m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 61¢ $9 10m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 38¢ $8 10m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $4 14m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 16m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $4 24m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 32m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 64¢ $19 35m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 35¢ $5 35m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 41m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 43m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $3 46m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 46m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $3 53m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 53m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $6 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 70¢ $17 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 29¢ $7 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $15 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 82¢ $5 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 83¢ $5 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.82 · official $12.82 (match) · 167 history records