Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:43:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
75 0x75e7…9080 other 150 markets active 98d ago coverage 82d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$113,426 (+84%) realized +$106,122 · open +$7,304
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +110% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +55% what you keep after slip
Net edge+55%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%72W / 75L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$899per market
Trades / day37.6pace
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$18,875now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,540
7 days+$1,540
14 days+$1,540
30 days+$1,540
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$15,849
politics 24% +$11,278
world 15% +$12,159
economics 9% +$10,152
culture 4% +$5,467
tech 3% +$713
sports 2% −$390
crypto 1% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+89.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +357.9% +314.2% 100% 100% +71.5%
≤30d 2 +357.9% +314.2% 100% 100% +71.5%
≤90d 8 +129.5% +107.6% 100% 62% +16.7%
all 147 +109.9% +89.9% 49% 41% +20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +89.9% 41% +20.8%
10% +71.7% 39% +9.2%
15% ← realistic here +55.1% 34% -1.3%
20% +39.9% 32% -11.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +110% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$945) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +150% → late +71% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
14.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$982 vs −$283 · ×3.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.33 per $1 lost it wins $3.33
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$18,875
Realized+$106,122
Unrealized+$7,304
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses72 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)147 / 150
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$899
Trades / day37.6
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 6¢ 81¢ $556 $8,135 +$7,579 (+1364%)
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $1,860 $1,993 +$133 (+7%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 60¢ 90¢ $1,200 $1,790 +$590 (+49%)
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? No 91¢ 98¢ $543 $591 +$47 (+9%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $510 $225 −$285 (-56%)
Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $210 $105 −$105 (-50%)
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? Yes 19¢ 1¢ $657 $24 −$633 (-96%)
Ostium FDV above $700M one day after launch? Yes 15¢ 5¢ $35 $12 −$23 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by March 31? Jun 19 $1,560 +$440 +28%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jun 19 $160 +$1,100 +688%
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025? Mar 25 $112 +$44 +39%
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 25 $945 +$1,055 +112%
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? Mar 25 $1,694 +$2,648 +156%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 25 $3,828 +$172 +4%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 25 $4,820 +$180 +4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 25 $7,632 +$368 +5%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 13 $3,010 −$280 -9%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? Feb 28 $230 +$770 +335%
Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts? Feb 28 $3,160 +$840 +27%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $6 mil Feb 13 $803 −$803 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Feb 12 $250 −$80 -32%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 09 $3,789 −$3,789 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Feb 08 $200 −$48 -24%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 07 $5,652 +$297 +5%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 06 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Feb 06 $1,062 +$930 +88%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Feb 06 $351 −$119 -34%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Feb 06 $1,520 +$1,434 +94%
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more? Feb 05 $260 −$260 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more? Feb 05 $280 −$280 -100%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31? Feb 05 $480 −$335 -70%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in less than 1 hour? Feb 05 $136 −$136 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 05 $370 −$310 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Feb 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan Feb 05 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 05 $89 +$1,911 +2158%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31? Feb 05 $260 +$1,740 +669%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 05 $1,600 +$400 +25%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 05 $500 +$3,250 +650%
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 6? Feb 03 $116 −$99 -86%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jan 28 $690 +$310 +45%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 28 $3,856 +$116 +3%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 25 $509 +$490 +96%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jan 25 $330 +$670 +203%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 25 $611 +$1,389 +227%
Sentient FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jan 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 25 $56 −$56 -100%
US strike on Syria by December 31? Jan 18 $354 +$184 +52%
Odds of Khamenei out in Jan over 20% on Friday? Jan 18 $296 +$205 +69%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75%? Jan 18 $293 +$307 +105%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025? Jan 18 $584 +$16 +3%
Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31? Jan 18 $39 +$660 +1680%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 18 $410 +$590 +144%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Jan 18 $970 +$30 +3%
Bill Clinton confirmed pedophile by December 31? Jan 18 $956 +$44 +5%
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? Jan 18 $1,600 +$1,750 +109%
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025? Jan 18 $981 +$19 +2%
Will Donald Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during Ukraine P Jan 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $407 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $49 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $49 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $49 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $49 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $49 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $49 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $49 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $49 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $49 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $50 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,874.92 · official $18,874.92 (match) · 3500 history records