Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:58:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
75 0x75e7…c4fc sports 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 282d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$210 (-2%) realized −$268 · open +$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%25W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$925now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$814
7 days+$940
14 days+$751
30 days+$751
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$385
other 3% +$84
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +31.8% +19.2% 48% 48% +16.0%
≤30d 54 +14.0% +3.1% 41% 41% +9.7%
≤90d 54 +14.0% +3.1% 41% 41% +9.7%
all 64 +9.5% -1.0% 39% 39% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 39% -4.7%
10% -10.4% 39% -13.8%
15% -19.1% 39% -22.1%
20% -27.0% 33% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$56 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$925
Realized−$268
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses25 / 39
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions8
Markets (closed)64 / 74
History coverage282d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Over 55¢ 100¢ $278 $507 +$230 (+83%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 55¢ 64¢ $145 $169 +$24 (+16%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Over 44¢ 21¢ $198 $95 −$104 (-52%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 Over 64¢ 62¢ $75 $72 −$3 (-4%)
Ismael Saibari: 5+ shots Yes 45¢ 52¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 1.5 Over 27¢ 24¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals Yes 14¢ 0¢ $48 $2 −$46 (-97%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 26¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $51 +$81 +158%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 24 $49 +$59 +121%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $50 +$222 +442%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $136 +$185 +136%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 1.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada Jun 24 $29 +$57 +201%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $76 +$121 +158%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $26 +$141 +549%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $19 +$16 +82%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $44 −$43 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $46 −$46 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $41 −$40 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $160 −$158 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $72 −$71 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $76 −$75 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $50 −$49 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $140 −$138 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $36 +$104 +291%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $112 −$111 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $56 +$61 +109%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $76 +$68 +89%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $160 −$157 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $59 −$58 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $24 −$24 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $49 −$48 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $160 −$158 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $264 +$318 +120%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $197 +$103 +52%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $156 −$152 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $67 −$65 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $239 +$402 +168%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $83 +$103 +123%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $72 +$30 +41%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $67 +$30 +46%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $26 +$58 +226%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $76 +$116 +152%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $25 +$39 +152%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 +$51 +101%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $46 +$159 +344%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $17 −$17 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$2 -7%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$24 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 52¢ $147 41m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $147 59m
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $26 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $76 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $202 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 58¢ $134 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $131 1h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $108 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $273 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $321 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score AND Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st BUY 40¢ $50 2h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $49 2h
Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $49 2h
Ismael Saibari: 5+ shots BUY Yes 45¢ $51 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 26¢ $49 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $51 2h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $50 2h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $49 2h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $87 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 1.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada SELL 99¢ $86 2h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $197 2h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $166 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $35 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $19 4h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $44 4h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $26 5h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $26 5h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $76 5h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 1.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada BUY 18¢ $26 5h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 1.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada BUY 32¢ $29 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $924.96 · official $1,048.85 · 148 history records