Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75e6…a5fe other 61 markets active 7d ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$499 (-79%) realized −$499 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate84%47W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$500
politics 12% −$2
other 4% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 5 -2.6% -11.9% 20% 0% -12.9%
≤90d 31 -3.2% -12.4% 71% 0% -86.0%
all 56 -0.5% -10.0% 84% 0% -82.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -82.1%
10% -18.6% 0% -83.8%
15% -26.5% 0% -85.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -86.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -84% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$56 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$499
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses47 / 9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)56 / 61
History coverage227d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 27? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 06 $52 −$2 -4%
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 31 $3 $0 -4%
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 28 $6 $0 -4%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 25 $2 $0 -4%
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks Mar 31 $500 −$500 -100%
Discord IPO before 2027? Mar 31 $1 $0 -37%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary ele Mar 31 $1 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 31 $1 $0 -0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by April 30? Mar 31 $1 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Mar 31 $1 $0 -0%
Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026? Mar 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%? Mar 31 $1 $0 +4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 31 $1 $0 +3%
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA seas Mar 31 $1 $0 +4%
Trump out as President by June 30? Mar 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? Mar 31 $1 $0 +5%
Will Backpack launch a token on March 23? Mar 31 $1 $0 +6%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026? Mar 21 $1 $0 +2%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Mar 21 $1 $0 +2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Mar 21 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 37°F or below on Janu Mar 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? Mar 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Mar 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? Mar 21 $1 $0 +4%
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10? Mar 21 $1 $0 +0%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Mar 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Mar 21 $1 $0 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Mar 21 $1 $0 +5%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026? Mar 21 $1 $0 +3%
Will "My Secret Santa" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (Dece Jan 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? Jan 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree - Brenda Lee be the #1 song on Jan 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Jan 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025? Jan 12 $1 $0 +2%
Nothing Ever Happens: Russia Edition Jan 12 $1 $0 +3%
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend? Jan 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? Jan 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will "Wake Up Dead Man" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (De Jan 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 2 straight weeks? Jan 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Jan 12 $2 $0 +6%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Dec 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in November? Dec 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will Paul Skenes win the 2025 NL Cy Young? Dec 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? Dec 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. House of Representatives session be announced by Novembe Dec 16 $1 $0 +9%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump win FIFA Peace Prize? Dec 16 $1 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 6d
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 6d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 96¢ $1 6d
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $8 10d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $8 10d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 11d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $5 11d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $2 11d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $8 12d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 13d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $6 13d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 13d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $8 13d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $5 15d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $4 15d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $9 15d
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $2 16d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 16d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $5 16d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $0 16d
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $3 18d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $7 18d
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $2 19d
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $4 19d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $3 19d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $4 20d
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $6 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.64 · official $7.64 (match) · 139 history records