Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:33:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
75 0x75e6…7e3d crypto 473 markets active 0h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$52 (+1%) realized +$51 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate72%340W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$47
sports 1% −$8
politics 1% −$54
other 1% −$25
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +8.0% -2.3% 81% 56% -5.0%
≤30d 232 +3.6% -6.2% 76% 54% -6.1%
≤90d 262 +1.5% -8.2% 73% 53% -7.4%
all 472 -0.9% -10.4% 72% 53% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 53% -9.9%
10% -18.9% 36% -18.6%
15% -26.8% 21% -26.4%
20% -34.0% 10% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses340 / 132
Open positions1
Markets (closed)472 / 473
History coverage240d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 472 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 78¢ 82¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$10 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $13 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.61 · official $10.74 (match) · 1381 history records