trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -31.6% | -38.2% | 29% | 29% | -28.6% |
| ≤30d | 13 | +29.6% | +17.2% | 38% | 38% | +1.4% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +29.6% | +17.2% | 38% | 38% | +1.4% |
| all | 13 | +29.6% | +17.2% | 38% | 38% | +1.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +17.2% | 38% | +1.4% |
| 10% | +6.0% | 38% | -8.3% |
| 15% | -4.2% | 31% | -17.1% |
| 20% | -13.6% | 31% | -25.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? | No | 75¢ | 72¢ | $104 | $100 | −$4 (-4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? | Jun 24 | $516 | +$405 | +78% |
| Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 | Jun 22 | $103 | −$103 | -100% |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Jun 22 | $884 | −$884 | -100% |
| Starmer out by August 31, 2026? | Jun 22 | $97 | −$97 | -100% |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 20 | $575 | −$54 | -9% |
| Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? | Jun 19 | $406 | +$210 | +52% |
| Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 18 | $103 | −$44 | -43% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 12 | $706 | +$204 | +29% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | Jun 12 | $831 | −$124 | -15% |
| Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | Jun 11 | $148 | −$143 | -97% |
| Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? | Jun 06 | $103 | −$30 | -29% |
| Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Jun 04 | $2 | +$7 | +362% |
| Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Jun 04 | $344 | +$1,235 | +359% |