Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:49:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75e2…2ed0 sports 1614 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 116d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,400 (-2%) realized −$1,281 · open −$119
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate65%1044W / 567L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Fees−$512est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$572
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$1,340
other 13% +$656
politics 1% −$6
world 0% +$9
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 145 +0.7% -8.9% 60% 59% -3.2%
≤90d 1191 -3.7% -12.9% 63% 55% -9.3%
all 1611 -2.9% -12.1% 65% 53% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 53% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 45% -18.9%
15% -28.2% 35% -26.7%
20% -35.2% 24% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$34 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$1,281
Unrealized−$119
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses1044 / 567
Est. fees paid−$512
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1611 / 1614
History coverage117d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1611 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 61¢ 44¢ $52 $37 −$15 (-29%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Betclic Apogee Esports 35¢ 0¢ $104 $0 −$104 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 215 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $70 −$69 -99%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $52 +$17 +33%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $150 −$148 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $141 +$61 +43%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $218 +$109 +50%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $83 +$51 +61%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $32 +$9 +27%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $62 −$29 -47%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $50 −$14 -27%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $89 −$88 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $56 +$33 +59%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 05 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 05 $25 −$25 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 05 $25 +$23 +90%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $50 +$33 +67%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $51 +$34 +67%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $51 +$51 +101%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $51 +$81 +158%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $130 +$103 +79%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $159 +$142 +90%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $50 −$1 -2%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $25 −$25 -98%
Tyler: Edas Butvilas vs Trevor Svajda Jun 03 $24 +$15 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $25 −$25 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 03 $25 −$25 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $25 −$25 -99%
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs Gaimin Gladiators (+1.5) Jun 03 $35 +$26 +73%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $34 +$22 +64%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $29 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $55 +$25 +46%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $50 −$49 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $50 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $25 +$23 +91%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5) Jun 03 $24 −$24 -99%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 03 $25 +$13 +52%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 03 $50 +$17 +34%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $25 +$17 +67%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $18 +$15 +82%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 02 $25 +$8 +33%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $50 +$23 +46%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $25 +$18 +73%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $22 +$28 +123%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $50 +$12 +24%
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 02 $25 +$5 +20%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $50 +$17 +34%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $26 +$27 +103%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Jodar (+1.5) Jun 02 $70 +$41 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 29¢ $55 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 41¢ $19 2h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 47¢ $51 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $52 2h
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 64¢ $70 18d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 99¢ $70 18d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Astralis 62¢ $150 18d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 74¢ $52 18d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner SELL Top Esports 100¢ $202 18d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 69¢ $141 18d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL BIG 100¢ $268 20d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 60¢ $49 20d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 63¢ $120 20d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner BUY BIG 68¢ $14 20d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? SELL Yes 94¢ $134 20d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 62¢ $50 20d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 56¢ $59 20d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL BIG 88¢ $59 20d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner BUY BIG 67¢ $41 20d
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-05? SELL No 95¢ $41 20d
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 49¢ $37 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli SELL Flavio Cobolli 50¢ $37 20d
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-05? BUY No 74¢ $32 20d
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? SELL Yes 80¢ $32 20d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 20d
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 67¢ $50 20d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 73¢ $49 20d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 62¢ $89 20d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL TYLOO 100¢ $89 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.98 · official $55.78 · 3500 history records