Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75e0…ea50 crypto 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$562 (-12%) realized −$562 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%20W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day37.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$185
7 days−$185
14 days−$944
30 days−$944
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$834
sports 2% −$105
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -15.7% -23.7% 43% 33% -19.8%
≤30d 48 -20.7% -28.3% 42% 35% -29.9%
≤90d 48 -20.7% -28.3% 42% 35% -29.9%
all 48 -20.7% -28.3% 42% 35% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.3% 35% -29.9%
10% ← realistic here -35.2% 33% -36.6%
15% -41.4% 29% -42.7%
20% -47.2% 25% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$64 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$562
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses20 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage10d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day37.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $34 +$42 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $135 −$8 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $77 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $205 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $68 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $295 −$58 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $104 −$87 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $159 +$44 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $22 +$19 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $111 +$45 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $47 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $136 +$181 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $114 +$17 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $58 +$35 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$11 +218%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $7 +$4 +62%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 +$7 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $291 −$105 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $161 −$155 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $204 −$177 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $530 −$299 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $246 −$240 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $164 +$22 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $209 +$129 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $209 +$126 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $187 −$100 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $485 +$158 +33%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $22 −$21 -96%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $11 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $30 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $14 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $16 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 405 history records